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Title: What Technology Investing Taught Me About Backing Football Talent

Brazil, 13th Jul 2026 - I spend most of my professional life evaluating early-stage companies and founders, deciding which teams are worth backing before the market has made that decision obvious. I didn’t expect that skill set to transfer so directly to how I think about football talent, but it has, almost point for point. The instincts that keep me from overpaying for a flashy pitch deck are the same instincts that make me skeptical of a highlight reel, and I think football’s talent evaluation world could learn a great deal from how serious technology investors actually make decisions.Traction Is Not the Same as TrajectoryIn early-stage investing, one of the first lessons you learn is that current traction — this month’s growth number, this quarter’s user count — tells you far less than it feels like it should. What actually predicts outcomes is trajectory: the rate of improvement, the team’s ability to learn from failure, and whether the fundamentals underneath the flashy metric are getting stronger or just being temporarily inflated. A company with modest current numbers but a steep, consistent improvement curve is usually a better bet than one with impressive numbers and a flat or declining curve.Football scouting has the same trap, and most of the sport hasn’t caught up to how to avoid it. A standout performance in a single tournament or a hot run of goals over six weeks generates enormous attention, the same way a viral growth spike generates enormous investor interest. But the more important question, in both cases, is what the trend line looks like over a longer horizon, and whether the improvement is coming from something durable — decision-making, work ethic, coachability — or from a temporary and unrepeatable set of circumstances.The Team Around the Talent M...

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