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Title: 2024: A Make-or-Break Year for Taobao

China, 23rd Jul 2024 - The dawn of AI-powered e-commerce is both an opportunity and a challenge for everyone involved. After a long absence, Jack Ma, the visionary founder of Alibaba, has reappeared with a new strategic plan for Taobao. As with his previous predictions—from the rise of e-commerce to the advent of new retail—his latest vision of AI-driven e-commerce aims to bring about a transformative innovation in the industry. However, unlike in the past, this time there are no precedents to follow or sufficient data to validate the strategy.Taobao’s current situation is markedly different from its golden days. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, Taobao and Tmall’s market share plummeted from 66% in 2019 to approximately 44% in 2022, a decline of nearly one-third in four years. By the end of last year, Pinduoduo’s market capitalization had surpassed Alibaba’s, and content-driven e-commerce platforms like Douyin (TikTok in China) and Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) were rapidly rising, exposing Taobao’s vulnerabilities.For a long time, Taobao’s growth was synonymous with the expansion of China’s e-commerce sector. Being the earliest and largest player, it mirrored the changes in consumer markets and public demand: before its mobile-centric transformation, Taobao was celebrated for its extensive product range, efficient search capabilities, and product optimization. With its mobile transition, Taobao expanded its domain with platforms like Tmall Global for international shopping, Tmall Special for low-end products, and Taobao Xinxuan for quality-focused items.However, by 2024, despite the development of self-researched tools and the acquisition and integration of various products, Taobao’s ecosystem has grown unwieldy. Internal competitions, strategic iterations, and...

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